ergo hoc propter hoc

Daniel Parker

3 min read

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14-03-2025

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Meta Description: Dive into the logical fallacy of "Ergo Hoc Propter Hoc" (correlation does not equal causation). Learn how to identify this common mistake in reasoning, with real-world examples and tips to avoid it. This comprehensive guide explores the nuances of correlation vs. causation, offering practical strategies for critical thinking and clearer communication. Discover how to strengthen your arguments and avoid misleading conclusions.

What is Ergo Hoc Propter Hoc?

"Ergo hoc propter hoc" is Latin for "therefore, this because of that." It describes the logical fallacy of false cause, where someone assumes that because two events occur together, one must have caused the other. Correlation doesn't equal causation. Just because two things happen at the same time or seem related doesn't mean one directly caused the other. This is a very common mistake in reasoning, leading to incorrect conclusions and flawed arguments.

Identifying Ergo Hoc Propter Hoc: Common Examples

Recognizing this fallacy is crucial for critical thinking. Here are some scenarios demonstrating how it plays out:

• Example 1: "Since the rooster crows before sunrise, the rooster must cause the sun to rise." This is obviously absurd. The crowing and sunrise are correlated (they happen at the same time), but one doesn't cause the other. They are both linked to a third factor: the Earth's rotation.

• Example 2: "Ice cream sales and drowning incidents both increase during summer. Therefore, eating ice cream causes drowning." The increase in both is due to the warmer weather. More people swim, leading to more drownings, and more people eat ice cream in warmer months.

• Example 3: "Our sales increased after we launched our new marketing campaign. Therefore, the campaign caused the sales increase." While a campaign might have boosted sales, other factors could be at play (e.g., seasonal changes, competitor failures). Correlation doesn't automatically mean causation.

• Example 4: "Unemployment rates are higher in areas with a larger population of immigrants. Therefore, immigrants cause unemployment." This ignores other economic factors that influence unemployment, such as automation, economic downturns, or lack of job training opportunities.

Subtler Instances of False Cause

The fallacy isn't always as blatant as the rooster example. Subtle variations are harder to spot:

• Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc: This is a specific type of false cause, where it's assumed that because one event followed another, the first event caused the second. For instance, "I wore my lucky socks and won the game. Therefore, my socks caused me to win." Coincidence doesn't imply causality.

• Confusing Correlation with Causation: This is the core of the problem. Many things correlate without a direct causal link. Statistical analysis can reveal correlations, but further investigation is needed to establish causality. Observational studies and controlled experiments are crucial in determining whether a true causal relationship exists.

• Ignoring Other Variables: This often happens when considering complex phenomena. A simple correlation might be explained by an unseen third factor, or a multitude of interacting factors.

How to Avoid Ergo Hoc Propter Hoc

To avoid falling prey to this fallacy, consider these strategies:

• Look for Alternative Explanations: Before concluding a causal link, explore other possible factors that could explain the observed correlation.

• Consider the Time Sequence: Does event A always precede event B? If not, a causal link is less likely.

• Seek Evidence from Multiple Sources: Don't rely on a single observation or study. Look for converging evidence from various perspectives and research methodologies.

• Use Statistical Controls: Statistical methods can help isolate the impact of a specific variable, controlling for the influence of others.

• Perform Controlled Experiments: The most reliable way to establish a causal relationship is through carefully designed experiments where variables are manipulated.

Strengthening Your Arguments: Moving Beyond Correlation

Strong arguments require more than just showing a correlation between two events. To establish causality, you need evidence demonstrating:

1. Temporal Precedence: Event A must precede event B.
2. Correlation: A statistically significant relationship between A and B must exist.
3. No Plausible Alternative Explanations: Other factors shouldn't better explain the observed relationship.

By understanding the fallacy of "ergo hoc propter hoc," and using these strategies, you can build more robust, logical, and convincing arguments. Remember: correlation is intriguing; causation requires rigorous evidence.